ELECTION PREDICTION SITES

OK, for those of you paying attention. There are 6 days and 6 nights until this election is over. There are many sites and blogs predicting the outcome.

Here are some projections. www.electionprojection.com predicts a tie at 269 to 269, Bush v. Kerry. Making a constitutional vote and situation apparent.

www.electoral-vote.com has Bush at 274 and Kerry at 257

www.realclearpolitics.com has similar.

Can any of this be reliable? I am for Bush, BUT I do wonder about the giant leads Kerry is predicted and am likewise skeptical about a blow out for Bush. Cheney may rue the day he said this would be a 52 to 48% victory. He may not.

Gallup was swinging to Kerry but now points to a Bush win. Rasmussen does the same. Zogby has a narrow 1 point lead for Bush.

One may wonder why so many different polls and so many different results. Same election? Same folks right? Wrong.

There are two groups of people surveyed. First, there is the official random sampling that is done in NYC or LA, just there. Second, a more random selection in a few more cities maybe a rural county or two. And then, there's the third one which I like to call the FINAL RANDOM SAMPLING, which is the actual voters and the actual outcome.

While there are many indicators favorable to Bush. Anything could happen. This could be a Reagan victory for Bush, a blow out for Kerry OR a Truman v Dewey nail biter and a repeat of the 2000 Election.

Remember this old addage- "There's lies. There's damned lies. And then there's the polls and statistics."

Beware of the stats and vote whom you know you're voting for before you enter that booth on November 2.