Second Cold War, Second Berlin Wall Falling?

Since September 11, 2001, a new wave of freedom has been sweeping a once dark part of the world. The Middle East and parts of Central Asia have been under a different form of tyranny. Since 1979, when Iran was taken over by Shiite Radicals, Saddam Hussein took power in Iraq, and the USSR invaded Afghanistan, there has been close to 30 years of war, upheavel and genocide. In 1989, the Berlin Wall had fallen after almost 40 years of conflicts/wars, upheavel, and mass murder by Communist bosses. Striking parallels, I'd say.

Here's the differences between the Communist Iron Curtain and the totalitarian/radical Islamofascist republics. First, Communism advocated No God or any worship except to the state. Rule was done by commissars and central committee members in Moscow. Second, the Islamic fundamentalists and Baathists were under the guise of Islam but were more Hitlerist in their practice and assertion of their politics of superiority over moderate clerics. In the Cold War, there was a massive espionage war and budget increases until the USSR went bankrupt and imploded. In this new War on Terror, it is a covert war, but also a publicized war in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Philippines, and other corners of the world. Unlike the Cold War, attacks have hit inside the continental United States and targeted civilian and military targets. September 11, 2001 was more than a Pearl Harbor, but also a wake up call to the dangers of terrorists and state-sponsored radicals, and their common pursuit of nuclear, chemical, biological, and dirty weapons of mass destruction.

Here are similarities to the Cold War and War on Terror. America and Britain are in this together. A large number of countries, albeit politically inert to America, are cooperative in fighting terrorist, but skeptical of taking the war to Iraq. Both regimes are seeking world domination through overt war, and covert terrorism. In the Cold War, USSR sponsored Carlos the Jackal, sent weapons to the PLO, Saddam Hussein, and others. In this War, the regimes of Assad and the Iranian fundamentalists sponsor Hamas, Al Qaeda, Al Aqsar, and send weapons all over. Kim Jong Il had recently lost a ship of weapons parts, when it was intercepted by US and Coalition naval vessels, aircraft, and special forces near Yemen. The destination was the Middle East and the clients, no doubt the terrorists.

There are stark differences in other ways. Russia poses the deepest split and exception to convention. In the Cold War they were the avowed foe of NATO, the US, and non-Soviet aligned lands. However, in the War on Terror Russia is playing odd role. Vladimir Putin declares to be an enemy of terrorism, in name the Chechens and Al Qaeda who is training the Chechens who gunned down hundreds of school children in Beslan, took hostages in a Moscow Opera House, and bomb subways and trains on a regular basis. Putin and Bush are committed to stop these terrorists. At the same time, though, Putin is brokering sales to Iran for weapons and did veto US action on Iraq. Putin seems to think that Iran and Iraq were countries that would not sponsor terrorists to hurt them. However, Iran has made threats against Russian infidels and even the Iraqi terrorists are training Chechens to hit Russia. Talk about biting the hand that feeds you. Russia is a double edged sword in this war, but an important and key part, maybe for both sides.

There is the specter of nuclear war in this new war, just like The Cold War. Now instead of Russia and China threatening to destroy the US and its allies, its rogue nations and even terrorist groups. China, while coddling North Korea and Kim Jong Il, who has confirmed nuclear weapons, is watchful of this regime. Pyongyang had a rocky relationship with Beijing for several decades and was more aligned with Russia. Now, Korea, is a rogue state that could hit US Bases in South Korea in Japan but easily changes its mind to hit Vladivostok or even China. Korea is an example of a rogue nation with weapons. Iran is another country with nuclear weapons, seeking the ability to assert its role as a power. Instead of just Beijing and Moscow aiming weapons at us, we now have the terrorists, North Korea, Iran, Syria, and other rogue groups seeking nuclear weapons and aiming that the US and our allies.

Now don't think we're all doomed here. True, there are enemies with the Sword Of Damacles poised at our throats, but there are different rumblings also. There are tens if not hundreds of millions tired of their regimes, ready for a chance at democracy.

In Lebanon, there is a nation that had just been recovering from a 15 year civil war, including several invasions by Israel into terrorist bases. Lebanon had lost a former Prime Minister, Rafiki Hariri, in a suicide car bomb. The suspects were linked to Syrian backed terrorists and the Syrian intelligence service. Lebanon was an unofficial part of Syria, despite having a Quisling government claiming sovereignty. How Vichy-like. However, unlike Vichy, these French, are up in arms and have demonstrated for weeks on end. The result, the Lebanese government is resigning and Syria is mulling over withdrawing all of its troops out of Lebanon. Even President Bush is warning the Syrians, and detects possible change without a war.

In Iran, despite the regime's nuclear showdown desire, dissidents and minorities are publically demonstrating against the mullahs and generals. Washington is rumored to be courted by the opposition for money and intelligence aid. Solidarity all over again, more or less. In Poland, Ronald Reagan and the CIA funnelled millions into the Polish Solidarity democracry movement and helped destabilize the Communist Quislings. Lets hope the same can occur in Iran and Lebanon, like Eastern Europe in the 1980s.

There were decisive strikes before the toppling of the regimes. In the 1980s, the US was backing wars against the Soviets in Afghanistan and Central America. In 1983, US troops were deployed to Grenada when pro-Cuban Communists and troops tried to take Grenada and then neighboring Caribbean nations. Reagan sent in the Marines and the official shooting war ended in hours. The covert war was longer. Reagan aided anti-Communist governments and rebels in Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. Those lands are now relatively stable, after years of conflict and the defeat of communist factions. In Afghanistan, the US and British aided the mujahadeen against the Red Army. The USSR withdrew its troops by 1988 after the US backed fighters fought off the technologically superior Red Army with US missiles and weapons. However, Afghanistan turned for the worse and hit us. First, we did not support any government or coalition in Kabul and it degenerated into civil war, and then the Taliban took over. Osama Bin Laden, once an ally of the US, turned against us, and you know the rest. Sometimes covert action works, others it does not.

Direct war seemed to make the case for diplomacy by Libya and Iran. I guess the thought of Shock and Awe, and deployment of Special Forces to incite successful rebellions gave the remaining regimes second thoughts. There's your useless war for you. So useless that Qadaffi and Syria want to talk to the US, not provoke war. Iraq, so useless that the Iraqi people voting choice is reverberating in Lebanon and Egypt and other areas. Peace through strength, said Ronald Reagan. Now it appears to be repeating itself.

Like the 1980s, the 2000 decade is a key moment in history. All of it comes down to proper US actions and our resolve. However, in the end the fight for democracy comes down to the people we are to help liberate. In Iraq and Afghanistan, the people have chosen democracy and still face an uphill climb. However, their example is being repeated in Lebanon, and now Egypt promising reforms for the first time since Assad was assassinated in 1981.

The toppling of the next wall of iron and steel will take time, like the last Berlin Wall, but this one will be as equally if not more reverberative.